{
  "series": "shutten",
  "name": "Skrrs出店動向インデックス",
  "frozen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-06",
  "acquired": "2026-08",
  "source": "自治体の営業許可・届出台帳（美容所・理容所の新規開設）から当社集計",
  "base": "2025年暦年平均=100",
  "movingAverage": "後方3ヶ月移動平均",
  "formulaVersion": "1.0",
  "latest": {
    "ym": "2026-06",
    "value": 73.5,
    "delta": -16.8,
    "ci95": {
      "low": 42.8,
      "high": 104.2,
      "halfWidth": 30.7,
      "n3": 22,
      "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
    },
    "deltaWithinCi95": true
  },
  "temporalCoverage": "2024-01/2026-06",
  "points": [
    {
      "ym": "2024-01",
      "value": 127,
      "delta": null,
      "rawN": 14,
      "ci95": null,
      "reproducible": false
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-02",
      "value": 113.6,
      "delta": -13.4,
      "rawN": 12,
      "ci95": null,
      "reproducible": false
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-03",
      "value": 153.8,
      "delta": 40.2,
      "rawN": 20,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 109.4,
        "high": 198.2,
        "halfWidth": 44.4,
        "n3": 46,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-04",
      "value": 137,
      "delta": -16.8,
      "rawN": 9,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 95.1,
        "high": 178.9,
        "halfWidth": 41.9,
        "n3": 41,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-05",
      "value": 123.7,
      "delta": -13.3,
      "rawN": 8,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 83.8,
        "high": 163.6,
        "halfWidth": 39.9,
        "n3": 37,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-06",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": -23.4,
      "rawN": 13,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-07",
      "value": 107,
      "delta": 6.7,
      "rawN": 11,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 69.9,
        "high": 144.1,
        "halfWidth": 37.1,
        "n3": 32,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-08",
      "value": 133.7,
      "delta": 26.7,
      "rawN": 16,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 92.3,
        "high": 175.1,
        "halfWidth": 41.4,
        "n3": 40,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-09",
      "value": 123.7,
      "delta": -10,
      "rawN": 10,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 83.8,
        "high": 163.6,
        "halfWidth": 39.9,
        "n3": 37,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-10",
      "value": 153.8,
      "delta": 30.1,
      "rawN": 20,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 109.4,
        "high": 198.2,
        "halfWidth": 44.4,
        "n3": 46,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-11",
      "value": 120.3,
      "delta": -33.5,
      "rawN": 6,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 81,
        "high": 159.6,
        "halfWidth": 39.3,
        "n3": 36,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2024-12",
      "value": 130.4,
      "delta": 10.1,
      "rawN": 13,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 89.5,
        "high": 171.3,
        "halfWidth": 40.9,
        "n3": 39,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-01",
      "value": 96.9,
      "delta": -33.5,
      "rawN": 10,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 61.6,
        "high": 132.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.3,
        "n3": 29,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-02",
      "value": 93.6,
      "delta": -3.3,
      "rawN": 5,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 58.9,
        "high": 128.3,
        "halfWidth": 34.7,
        "n3": 28,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-03",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": 6.7,
      "rawN": 15,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-04",
      "value": 93.6,
      "delta": -6.7,
      "rawN": 8,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 58.9,
        "high": 128.3,
        "halfWidth": 34.7,
        "n3": 28,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-05",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": 6.7,
      "rawN": 7,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-06",
      "value": 90.3,
      "delta": -10,
      "rawN": 12,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 56.2,
        "high": 124.4,
        "halfWidth": 34.1,
        "n3": 27,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-07",
      "value": 80.2,
      "delta": -10.1,
      "rawN": 5,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 48.1,
        "high": 112.3,
        "halfWidth": 32.1,
        "n3": 24,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-08",
      "value": 86.9,
      "delta": 6.7,
      "rawN": 9,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 53.5,
        "high": 120.3,
        "halfWidth": 33.4,
        "n3": 26,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-09",
      "value": 96.9,
      "delta": 10,
      "rawN": 15,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 61.6,
        "high": 132.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.3,
        "n3": 29,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-10",
      "value": 130.4,
      "delta": 33.5,
      "rawN": 15,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 89.5,
        "high": 171.3,
        "halfWidth": 40.9,
        "n3": 39,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-11",
      "value": 130.4,
      "delta": 0,
      "rawN": 9,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 89.5,
        "high": 171.3,
        "halfWidth": 40.9,
        "n3": 39,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2025-12",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": -30.1,
      "rawN": 6,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-01",
      "value": 86.9,
      "delta": -13.4,
      "rawN": 11,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 53.5,
        "high": 120.3,
        "halfWidth": 33.4,
        "n3": 26,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-02",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": 13.4,
      "rawN": 13,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-03",
      "value": 113.6,
      "delta": 13.3,
      "rawN": 10,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 75.4,
        "high": 151.8,
        "halfWidth": 38.2,
        "n3": 34,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-04",
      "value": 100.3,
      "delta": -13.3,
      "rawN": 7,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 64.4,
        "high": 136.2,
        "halfWidth": 35.9,
        "n3": 30,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-05",
      "value": 90.3,
      "delta": -10,
      "rawN": 10,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 56.2,
        "high": 124.4,
        "halfWidth": 34.1,
        "n3": 27,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    },
    {
      "ym": "2026-06",
      "value": 73.5,
      "delta": -16.8,
      "rawN": 5,
      "ci95": {
        "low": 42.8,
        "high": 104.2,
        "halfWidth": 30.7,
        "n3": 22,
        "method": "poisson-normal-approx"
      },
      "reproducible": true
    }
  ],
  "issues": [
    {
      "issue": "2026-08",
      "no": 1,
      "publishedAt": "2026-08-18",
      "json": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/v1/indices/shutten.json?issue=2026-08",
      "html": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/indices/shutten/2026-08"
    }
  ],
  "html": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/indices/shutten",
  "csv": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/csv/indices/shutten.csv",
  "caveats": [
    "算式は v1.0 で固定です。算式を変更するときは改定ではなく新系列として発表します。",
    "発行済みの号（issues）は凍結され、系列（points）が後から改定されても号の数値は変わりません。",
    "ci95 はポアソン近似の95%区間（value × 1.96 / √3ヶ月合計n）です。値を引用するときは必ず幅を添えてください。",
    "reproducible=false の点（系列の先頭2ヶ月）は、後方3ヶ月移動平均に必要な前2ヶ月の実数nが掲載期間外のため、本レスポンスの rawN だけでは指数値を再計算できません。",
    "小標本（月平均約10件）のため、単月の水準ではなく3ヶ月移動平均の方向をお読みください。",
    "最新値の95%区間は 43〜104 です。この区間は 100 を含むため、「2025年平均より活発か鈍いか」を統計的に断定することはできません。",
    "パネル5駅と広域母集団の相関は r=0.134（n=27・95%区間 [−0.26, 0.49]）で、代表性は現時点の標本では肯定も否定もできません（/methodology#panel）。"
  ],
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Skrrs物件アナリティクス",
  "attributionExample": "出典: Skrrs物件アナリティクス（https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com）／CC BY 4.0",
  "documentation": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/data",
  "methodology": "https://analytics.skrrs-jp.com/methodology",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-19T09:49:51.228Z"
}